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The problem with new model cars
Think twice about buying a newly designed model in its first year
(from consumerreports.org)When a new model is introduced, the media buzz and marketing hoopla can tempt you to be the first on your block to drive one home. But this can cost you in dollars, time, and hassle.
Consumer Reports’ auto-reliability surveys show that most newly designed models have more problems during their first model year than in the model year before or in the model years that follow. First-year models continue to have more problems as they age. Our advice: Wait one or even two years before buying a new design until the manufacturer has had a chance to work out the bugs.
Most models change very little from year to year. But in a typical year, there can be 25 or more models that are either new or have undergone a major redesign. A redesign is often referred to as a new generation for that model and typically involves significant changes to the body, chassis, drivetrain, and interior.
For this report, we analyzed our reliability data for 79 models that were introduced new or underwent a redesign in the 2000 through 2002 model years. More than half had noticeably fewer problems in their second model year and about two-thirds had fewer problems in their third model year than in the model year in which the new design was introduced.
Moreover, about two-thirds of the redesigned models had more problems in the first model year of the new design than in the previous year’s version (the last year of the previous generation).
Overall, new and redesigned models averaged 41 problems per 100 vehicles in their first model year, compared with 33 and 29 problems for the second and third model year. That’s a 20- and 29-percent drop in problems, respectively. Similarly, redesigned models had an average 44-percent higher problem rate–or 11 more problems per 100 vehicles–than the previous model year.
Some models experience dramatic improvements in their second- and third-year problem rates. For example, the Dodge Grand Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country minivan twins and the Chevrolet Suburban and GMC Yukon XL large-SUV twins had about 40 and 50 percent fewer problems in the second and third model year following their redesign than they did in the first model year.
Even models that have a track record of being consistently reliable can show a significant increase in the problem rate during the first year of a redesign. When the Toyota RAV4 was redesigned in 2001, its problem rate tripled, from only 13 problems per 100 vehicles for the previous-generation 2000 model to 39 problems for the redesign’s first year. Because Toyota was quick to make changes that improved reliability, the RAV4’s problem rate dropped back to 18 and 13 problems per 100 vehicles in the second and third years of the redesign.
Similarly, the Honda Civic, which had only 16 problems per 100 vehicles in model-year 2000, increased 81 percent, to 29 problems, when it was redesigned in 2001. It dropped back to 16 problems by the third model year of the redesign.
Crunching the numbers
The data in this report are based on hundreds of thousands of responses to our annual subscriber surveys, in which we asked vehicle owners to report any serious problems they had with their vehicles in the previous 12 months. We tracked the problem rates for 35 new and 44 redesigned models from our 2000 through 2004 surveys. Using the problem rates when each model was two years old, we compared the problems of the first model year of each new design with those of the second and third model years. In other words, if a model was introduced new in 2001, we compared its problem rate for that model year with the problem rates of the following 2002 and 2003 versions of that same model. For redesigned models, we also compared their first-model-year problem rates with the previous model year to see whether they had more problems than the version they replaced. For a previous or later model to be considered as having fewer problems, there must be at least a 15 percent difference. Not all 79 models we compared had second- or third-model-year data. In the latest survey (2004), we did not yet have third-model-year data for models introduced in 2002.
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